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THE REALISTIC GIANTS FAN: Philly's Good...Not Untouchable

A Homer's Explanation

I hope you know the baseball analysts have made a Philly win almost inevitable and I must admit that the scale is tipped in their favor, but to make it a foregone conclusion is short sighted. Some very important things have to be put into the equation in order to get a clear picture.

First, you can't expect our offense to stay asleep like it has...I don't care who your pitcher is. This is a cyclical offense. When they go cold, they go cold and when they are hot they are hot. We lit up both Hamels and Halladay this year and beat Oswalt 3 times! True, Oswalt was in a Houston uniform for those games, but a change in uniform is not a change in DNA. This is not to say that these pitchers are easy to face, hardly, it's just that we perform better against pitchers where we have some sort of track record. Also, not one is a sinker-baller and if you've paid any attention this year you know that sinkers are our achilles heel. If you pitch up in the zone we can get to you. Still, Halladay is a location master and both Oswalt and Hamels have devastating change-ups.

The Phillies are 5 games better than us as far as records go. We are 92-70 and they are 97-65. That may seem like a huge difference but really look at what happened. The Giants performed terribly against one team that they had to face a lot...the Padres. For whatever reason they owned us. They wouldn't have been in the running without us and we would have ran away with things without them. You simply improve us to .500 against the Padres and then we are a 95 win team and the differential is harder to see. I didn't want to see the Padres get in, because if we had gotten to the NLCS against them I have no doubt in my mind that they would have handed us our own behinds.

The Giants also turned it on in the 2nd half. That was when their roster became the closest to what it is now. If you divide the season not by the all-star break, but rather the actual mid-point you will see that we stumbled through the 1st 81 (41-40) and cleaned up in the 2nd (51-30). We are a stronger team than our record let's on. This team, as currently constructed, can beat anyone. The Phillies are good, but they are hardly a juggernaut.

It's hard to make it to the World Series 3 years in a row. That's what the Phillies are attempting to do. They are quite capable, I won't say they're not, but look at how many times its been done in National League history, especially in the division era. In the division era the Reds did it in the mid-70s and the...ohh what do you know, that's it. I discount the Yankees in the AL because they had huge profits combined with a great owner (that's right, I think Steinbrenner was great) who enjoyed nothing more than pumping the profits into his team. There are other owners that would use the same tactics if they could. People say that it was purely Steinbrenner's will to win that did it for New York and while it is very true he was passionate for winning, the real help to the Yankee cause is the money they generate. They have a huge market, fans who are willing to pay ungodly prices for anything and TV profits that Bill Neukom could only salivate while dreaming about.

There is no pressure on the Giants. They are quite clearly the underdog and don't have homefield advantage. In 2002 the Giants squeaked by the Braves and then faced a Cardinal team that was heavily favored at a homefield disadvantage. The Giants beat them rather soundly. It was not expected at all, but the Giants just had the momentum. They had fought their way into the playoffs and had been playing in important games since mid-September. The Cardinals had cruised to a Central Division title and disposed of the DiamondBacks in short order. Darryl Kile had passed as well as Jack Buck and the Cardinals were supoosedly very motivated. You know what happened.

The last thing they are missing is far less important on their scale than it should be on yours. I'm telling you they're gonna win. My track record is impeccable. Go ahead, look through these articles, I beg you and just check out how RIDICULOUSLY accurate I have been this year. I can't explain it sometimes but I just sense things about this team, no matter who comprises the roster. The team runs through my bloodstream or something else sounding equally crazy. It feels like we will be playing the Rangers for the World Series crown. No explanation, just the old gut feeling.

We have this...The Giants will win the NLCS in 5.

(feel free to comment and explain to me how I'm crazy, or email me directly with more private concerns for my sanity at realisticgiantsfan@yahoo.com. I'll be back Monday.)


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